Champions League (quarterfinals, futures...)

[Alan]

First of I'd like to start by saying I'm glad I stumbled onto this board, actually my friend Matt gave me the link to check it out and I decided to register (he did the same).
I'd also like to stress out that I've been posting on various internet boards (won't mention them here since I'm not sure what's your stance on website promotions, etc), some of them I've been moderating and administrating, and at around 20 boards I've been known as Satyr. Now I come here and see that the username is taken and that the guy is a troublemaker. Oh well, I'll post under Alan, no problem with that. Just like to point that it's not the same guy.
I'm European, and my forte are NBA, NHL, European soccer(football).

I'll post my Champions league preview here, hopefully it'll be of some use.

[Alan]

CL has been quite successful so far this season (45 units of profit http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/images/smilies/Wacka%20Wacka.gif ) and I see a lot of value opportunities to cash in on at this point, here are my thoughts. Feel free to comment.




Liverpool v Barca
Liverpool plays the worst possible game for Barcelona, 10 men behind ball when defending isn't something high flying Catalans like to face, and it's not just any ordinary team either, but a team that has been playing similar style for a couple of seasons now and created a lot of problems for Chelsea in Cup competitions, not to mention won the CL.

Furthermore, Reds' coach is a Spaniard, if he doesn't know Barca no one does. Barcelona are in a small upswing now with the return of Eto'o but they are still vulnerable and far from saying "we'll go through comfortably".

Pinnacle offers 3.45 on Liverpool to go through and frankly I see a solid opportunity of that to happen. Also note that Liverpool have the 2nd game at home, meaning even a 0:1 defeat at Camp Nou keeps them in contention. Also have in mind Liverpool's 25:2 run in the Premiership up until the last game with Newcastle (lost 2:1), and don't put much focus on the losses against Arsenal, as in Carling Cup they played with combined teams and obviously Paletta and Dudek played AWFULLY, Arsenal scoring 6 on 7 shots(!!?). Similar thing happened 3 days earlier, Liverpool dominated the game and still lost. But this is a different type of game. First of it's a 2 leg match, meaning Liverpool will play in front of their fans to qualify, also Barca will be the one to attack, I expect Xabi's pinpoint passes and Gerrard's impulse to create enough opportunities for Kuyt and Crouch to feast off, and wouldn't write them off as some are doing.

The thing is, Barca are the favorite, but are they THIS better? Perhaps last season, but this season they had some really unconvincing games and lost pace several times, and the odds on Liverpool are HUGE in this case, wouldn't say that this is realistic.
Going in with 4 units.

Other picks:
Valencia to advance @ 2.46 (Pinnacle) 3 units
Valencia are playing excellent football again, after a downtrend which came as a result of missing men from the line-up, they're healthy again and beating every team they face in Primera. Inter's streak is even more impressive, but playing in Italy and facing Serie A teams constantly, plus winning so many games in a row might have created a letdown opportunity. It's very hard to fade a team playing this well, but Valencia are simply too good to miss out on these odds. I'll try to back Valencia at Mestalla that's for sure.


Roma (2.69 @ Pinnacle)
Lyon won today after more than month without a win. Houllier did a similar thing back in his Liverpool days when the team played rather well in his first couple of seasons then began the slide. Lyon were eliminated from the French cup, lost to several teams in French league and barely managed a draw against Nice at home.
The win against Lorient is anything but impressive, the guests missed a 100% chance in the opening minutes, only to see Lyon score and hold on the lead until the end.
Roma, on the other hand, will almost surely beat Lyon at Olimpico, it only depends how they'll handle the away fixture. I don't think Lyon has the power nor momentum now to be favored in this clash, I would expect Roma to step up big here and go through.
6 units.


Outright bets:

I know I know, my fellow Reds' fans will hate me for this, but this is just wrong if you ask me.

Manchester United to win Champions league (9.40) 10 units

As much as I dislike the club I have to give them credit, they've been winning hands down in the Premiership this season and it's hard to believe they'll let Chelsea overtake them in the remaining 11 games. Also, the way they've been playing I am convinced they shouldn't be underdogs against ANY team in Europe right now, not even Barcelona.

Barca and Chelsea are set as the highest favorites to take the crown, which I think is out of place. Barcelona won it last season and we all know how hard it is to win it twice in a row, and Chelsea just don't look all that well at the moment, with all the turbulence going on inside the team. Perhaps they can settle interior problems, but frankly I don't see them outplaying neither Barca not Man Utd in near future.
This is most likely Alex Ferguson's last season at the helm so they might wanna step up big and win it for him. Even if it wasn't for that factor the Red Devils are just RED HOT right now and have been like that throughout the season. They had a small downtrend just as the group stage was about to finish, Benfica even took the lead at Old Trafford, but they're just too strong for everyone at the moment, they blew them clean off 3-1, could've been 5-1 without problems. Cristiano Ronaldo, as much as he is a diver, his impact to the game is HUGE right now and with Rooney and Saha up front, and experienced duo Giggs-Scholes this team can go all the way.
HUGE VALUE(note that I stake 10/10 perhaps 15 times throughout the season, but this is just too good to miss out on, and I'm willing to risk it)
10/10


Liverpool to win Champions league (21.92) 2 units

Trust me, this is NOT a fan based bet, nor is my bet for Liverpool to go through. If you don't trust me on that one, simply skip this preview, or the previous one, if you're really curious why I find these odds too high, read on:

Let's just say that Liverpool can beat Barca. I won't repeat myself, but the fact remains they are a monster 10-3-0 25:3 in front of their fans at the fortress of Anfield in the Premiership. They won the CL group and Rafa has shown once again this is his competition, he did wonders with Valencia, who were a thorn in everyone's eye back then, and is doing the same with Liverpool. Liverpool might not have the depth but they have class. Xabi-Gerrard midfield duo, rock solid Carra-Agger defense (btw if you watched Newcastle-Liverpool you would know how Reina was to blame for the first goal, and another defensive mistake created an opportunity for the Toon, but HOW MANY GAMES IN A ROW was that line simply FLAWLESS? Without any errors, just impeccable. Some would say it was due to inferior opposition. I say ok. But let me ask you something.

Let's say Liverpool eliminate Barcelona. And it's not like it's impossible, they are fully capable of outplaying Barcelona in England, provided they keep it close (1 maybe 2 goals margin after 1st leg).

But let's say they go through. What do you think how will the public and the bookies treat them? European champions from 2 years ago beating the BIGGEST TITLE candidates, kicked out of both domestic cup competitions and probably a fight for the 3rd place in the Premiership. If Liverpool go through their momentum will be HUGE and in that case I expect them to go far, perhaps even the finals. That's why odds 21.92 represent value, and I'll stake 2 units.

Valencia @ 23.82 1 unit
They're playing too well at the moment to pass out on this price, plus they're flying under the radar (with Barca and Real being in focus in Primera and several other teams doing the same in CL). A team with Joaquin, Vicente, Baraja, David Villa and Morientes in form can't be underestimated.


RIP OFFS:

Barcelona @ 4.46
Chelsea @ 4.63

You might be keen on thinking that one of these two teams will win the CL this season but I'm telling you right now: YOU'RE GETTING RIPPED! Taking them at these prices. If you really think they can win it all, don't you think it's better to time your bets well and back them up in games instead of throwing your money away like this?
What are they, Roger Federer of football? MANY teams are rather equally matched, and due to Barca's unconvincing periods this season and Chelsea's struggles plus inside-the-club happening that surely make Mourinho's job harder than it would usually be.


Real Madrid (15.30)

You can't tell me Real Madrid (yes, the same Real Madrid who just invited Beckham back after getting rid of him earlier this year)
are rated somewhat similar as Arsenal (13.9), who have already reached the CL finals last season and have far better team atmosphere and are generally more cohesive than the Galacticos, who are still in transition mode, trying to figure out which way the club should be going.

That's a ripoff if you ask me.

Do we really think Lyon (9.30) can win CL this season? I doubt it. Not after that HORRID run they had in Le Championnat, and it's not that much about the run, but their game was really poor. Plus they, same as Real Madrid, don't have much time at their hands, it's not like they can brush their form for a couple of months, CL quarterfinals are very near.
Lyon are overrated here.


AC Milan (15.00)

What on Earth for? Because of Ronaldo? They have had huge problems with even assembling a team lately, a lot of injuries, veteran players need to carry out the weight alongside the talented Kaka, I just don't think it will be enough to win it all, and they are severely overrated here. Again, compare them to a healthy environment such as Arsenal, with a lot of talented youngsters on the team and compare the prices. Crazy, isn't it?


I've made 45 units so far betting on the Champions league this season and I won't be dissapointed if I lose very single bet here, even though I think that won't happen, there are several good prices here, and I believe all these bets have a shot at cashing in, while I'm not that keen on forcing it at this stage with rather small odds.

[Alan]

Onto the 1st leg now:

Barcelona - Liverpool

All my thoughts on this game are available in the "first knockout round" thread, let me be brief here and concentrate mainly on the 1st game.

I'll just take two bets in the first match, and with low stakes (already took Liverpool to advance @ 3.35), and those are Barcelona to win by 1 goal difference and Liverpool to score first.
As much as I've tried to imagine it, I just can't see a blowout here, Barcelona aren't in their best shape with Eto'o doubtful, Messi fresh returned and Rijkaard rumors about his departure at the end of the season, that has to affect the atmosphere, and Barca haven't been as intimidating and impressive as last year.
Liverpool were kicked out from both national cups, and are out of the 2nd place race, by getting through in the Champions League they know they would excel to one of the biggest favorites and Rafa surely knows how to oppose Barca, who aren't as unbeatable as before. Xabi's pinpoint passes and Gerrard's talent should create enough chances, plus we know how Liverpool tend to open games in a fast pace manner, then as time goes by progressively close out. I see a 2:1 game here, with Liverpool taking the lead. Low stakes.
Liverpool to score first (3.35) 1 unit
Barcelona to win by 1 goal (3.80) 2 units


Celtic - Milan

Celtic are a rather strong team this season, more physical than in previous season when they missed that hustle, couldn't cope with the top teams, this year they've shown they can compete with Man United, first they scored 2 goals at Old Trafford in the 1st half, then played a rather tied match at home, with Shunsuke Nakamura's fantastic free kick deciding the game.
Celtic were a different team a couple of years ago than now, with players like Vennegoor Of Hesselink, Beattie, Zurawski (injured), Lennon and Gravesen, they can compete.
Milan, on the other hand, are feeling the consequences of a poor season which started with the calciopoli point deductions. They still have to work on rejuvenating the team, with Maldini, Cafu and Costacurta on the leave, with Ronaldo cup tied, Inzaghi injured and Gilardino just not good enough, plus the rather erratic form by Kaka lately, Celtic should dictate the tempo here and even win the match.

Celtic (+1/4) (1.82 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
Celtic to advance (4.00 @ Expekt) 2 units


This is a post by another member from the board I post at, very useful info from him (red marked players are important):

Celtic Team news:
Central defenders Bobo Balde (injured), Gary Caldwell (injured) and Steven Pressley (cup-tied) are all unavailable. New signing Paul Hartley (central midfield) is also cup tied. Maciej Zurawski (striker) is injured and won't play. Derek Riordan (left midfield) is injured and doubtful. Strikers Vennegoor and Beattie picked up niggles against Aberdeen but should be fit.

This means that McManus and O'Dea are the only fit central defenders. McManus would have played anyway. O'Dea is a 19 year old who has done very well since breaking into the team. All our central defenders are pretty average and there isn't much difference between them all in quality. Pressley would have made the biggest difference but he never played in the CL for Celtic this season anyway.

I know it seems like there's a lot of players unavailable but Celtic have plenty of strength in depth. Without Riordan there's McGeady who I'd prefer to play anyway. Without Hartley there's Gravesen. Zurawski would have been lucky to make the bench if he was fit.

Milan Team news:
Dida, Nesta, Serginho and Inzaghi are injured and won't travel. Gilardino will travel but he is a big doubt. Seedorf missed yesterday's match but is expected to be fit. Ronaldo is cup tied.

Nesta is a big miss. Their defence has been very shaky without him. Storari is a decent backup to Dida but conceding 3 goals yesterday won't do his confidence much good. Serginho has been out all season and Jankulovski is playing at left back. Inzaghi would have been on the bench but it's one less impact sub for them. The last time he came off the bench against Celtic he scored in the 89th minute to make it 2-1 in the San Siro.

---

Probable Celtic team:

Boruc; Wilson, McManus, O'Dea, Naylor; Nakamura, Lennon, Gravesen, McGeady; Vennegoor of Hesselink, Beattie.

subs: Brown, Doumbe, Telfer, Sno, Jarosik, Miller, Riordan.

Probable Milan team:

Storari; Oddo, Maldini, Bonera, Jankulovski; Pirlo, Gattuso, Seedorf, Kaka; Oliveira, Gilardino (Brocchi).
Porto - Chelsea

Similar story to the one of Barca, Chelsea just aren't as impressive and aren't playing as fast flowing game as last season, with Ballack in the team they had to adjust their tactics, also Sheva was expected to score more than he is, all in all Chelsea shouldn't be as favored in Portugal as they are now.
They surely are the better team but this is an underestimation of Porto's home record and their solid performances this season in CL.
Still thinking about it, but early lean is Porto +0.25.


No other bets so far.


GL.

[dmmd98]

Forgive me, I make it a point not to read people's threads before I make up my own mind on what im going to bet. Usually it just ends up confusing me in my decision process.

Just wanted to say welcome again and if you are able to mention us at the forums to post/mod at then I would see no problem with you doing the same over here so don't worry about me editing your posts or anything.

Congrats with Celtic today and I really wish you good luck with Porto tomorrow.

[Alan]

Thanks, but I actually didn't have Porto but rather Valencia and Liverpool to advance, which now look like solid bets. Roma would need to step up a bit to nail them, but looks ok overall.

[yellowdragon]

After 1st leg ,I think these team below will advance :

Milan
MU
Arsenal
BM
Lyon
Liverpool
Chelsea
Valencia

Barca will be out :confused: