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View Full Version : UFC 84: Ill Will Betting Breakdown, Predictions


TOW
05-24-2008, 03:01 PM
Tito Ortiz vs Lyoto Machida
There are a few ways to beat Tito Ortiz and I’m not sure if Machida possesses the skills to do that. First of all, you can outwrestle him like Randy Couture did. Machida lacks the wrestling to win that way.

Second, you can out punch him on the feet and use your excellent takedown defense to stuff Ortiz’s takedowns. Machida may have the takedown defense, but he does not have the KO power of Chuck Liddell who is the only man ever to stop the Huntington Beach Bad Boy with punches.

What is a possibility for a Machida victory is The Dragon just using his distance and winning a striking battle, all the while staying out of takedown range for Tito. Seeing as Machida has won quite a few of his fights by decision that is the most likely scenario for him to keep his unbeaten record intact.

Neither guy should have to worry about the submission game much in this one unless Machida tries for a triangle with Tito on top. This is a really hard match to figure out since Machida has never faced a wrestler with the takedowns of a Tito Ortiz. Even if Tito gets the takedown, I definitely see this fight going to the judges.

Lyoto has a very active guard that will throw off the Tito ground-and-pound and Machida is so good at being patient on his feet that I can’t see this fight being stopped early unless Tito catches Machida with an elbow after a takedown that opens up a bad cut.

The pick for this fight is Tito Ortiz/Lyoto Machida goes 3 round distance; Yes -275 at 5Dimes (http://affiliates.5dimes.com/tracking/Affiliate.asp?AffID=5d1760369&mediaTypeID=98&image=/tracking/banner/468x60/Generic_Generic_5D468x60(01).gif&AffUrlID=423).

Ivan Salaverry vs Rousimar Palhares
Salaverry is one of the most well-rounded fighters out there but he doesn’t excel at any particular part of the fight game.

Many believe this will be Salaverry’s last fight as he has mentioned recently that he is more interested in running a fight team and training people as opposed to actually fighting.

He gets UFC newcomer Palhares who is 7-1 with most of his wins coming via submission. Palhares trains with the Brazilian Top Team and has shown that he has a wide array of ways to win the fight with his jui jitsu.

Salaverry is pretty slick and has never been submitted in his 18 professional fights so Palhares may have a tough time in this one since he is still somewhat new to the fight game and hasn’t shown impressive standup when it comes to knocking people out, although he is a safe striker and doesn’t put himself in bad spots while exchanging.

I’d give the wrestling edge to Salaverry who deserves to be a small-to-moderate sized favorite in this fight and that is exactly where he is with the books. I recommend laying off this one.

Rameau Sokoudjou vs Kazuhiro Nakamura
Sokoudjou had a tough go of it in his UFC debut against Lyoto Machida but has shown incredible athleticism and serious KO power in the limited action he has seen.

Both of these fighters are impressive judo fighters who should counter eachother on that front. What this fight comes down to is that Sokoudjou has more power, the better standup, better wrestling, and is much more athletic.

Nakamura is good at grinding out decisions but against a fighter who will come at you as fast and as powerful as Sokoudjou will, I don’t think Kaz can last until this one gets to the cards.

The pick for this fight is Rameau Sokoudjou -220 at 5Dimes (http://affiliates.5dimes.com/tracking/Affiliate.asp?AffID=5d1760369&mediaTypeID=98&image=/tracking/banner/468x60/Generic_Generic_5D468x60(01).gif&AffUrlID=423).

Rich Clementi vs Terry Etim
Clementi took barely over a month off before his last win in the octagon before he gets back in there against Etim.

Rich has very nice submissions and is capable in the standup. His wrestling is constantly improving and he’s become a very well-rounded fighter.

Clementi has improved to the point he is unlikely to get submitted and he’s always shown a great chin and has never been knocked out.

Etim is a lanky English fighter who has shown very nice submission skills but is coming off his first loss after Gleison Tibau won a unanimous decision.

Etim won’t be able to submit “No Love” here and will be in a world of trouble as Clementi should be able to take him down at will, as well as having more power when the fight is standing.

Etim’s only hope is that he can catch Rich in a triangle choke but Clementi is a savvy veteran and I just don’t see that happening.

The pick for this fight is Rich Clementi -205 at Bookmaker (http://www.bookmaker.com/?cmpid=2977_373).

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